I generally avoid extensive discussions about trans issues because it’s basically poison all across the spectrum (The Right outright rejects all things trans, The Left essentializes while saying they don’t). That said, I think it’s necessary to point out misleading framing regarding mass shootings in the U.S. and the “emerging trans pattern.”
In the United States, there is more than one mass shooting every day. Since 2020, we have averaged two a day. Interestingly, by 2025, we are coming in pretty low so far at about 1.19 per day (286 incidents over 241 days through August 29, which is roughly 1.19 incidents per day), but this is still a crazy high rate.
But even at the (sigh) relatively low rate of over one a day, a lot of conservatives are nOtIcInG a PaTtErN:
So, by any confirmable information, the Minnesota Shooter, at least recently, identified as trans (more on this shortly). This is the only trans-related mass shooting on Donald Trump Jr.’s list that happened in 2025. Let’s address the others.
To avoid the posthumous or post-sentencing fame effect, I will only be listing the locations and dates. The following shooters were trans unless otherwise noted.
Georgia, September 4, 2024, cis shooter expressed sympathy for trans people
Philadelphia, July 3, 2023, shooter self-identified as “male” to authorities
Uvalde, May 24, 2022, the “shooter” shown in media was a false ID, the actual shooter wasn’t trans
So, two from 2024, two from 2023, two from 2022, one from 2019, and one from 2018 (three turning out not to be trans-related). A surprising pattern emerges!!!
Even if you accept all of the shootings as trans-related (including the contested/false ones), you’re still talking about a handful of incidents against thousands of mass-shooting events. In 2025 alone, it’s again 1 out of 286 (one-third of one percent).
And again, the final list entry in Donald Trump Jr.’s post was the Minnesota shooter from this week, the shooter whom the various personalities are using the shooting to characterize “a trans pattern” in mass shootings.
However, reporting on the shooter’s manifesto (written in Cyrillic and being translated by users on the internet, bear in mind) potentially undermines this aspect:
In a handwritten manifesto shared by the shooter in a YouTube video before opening fire, Westman appeared to question that decision.
'I only keep [the long hair] because it is pretty much my last shred of being trans. I am tired of being trans, I wish I never brain-washed myself,' the killer wrote in a scrawled cryptic message.
'I can’t cut my hair now, as it would be an embarrassing defeat, and it might be a concerning change of character that could get me reported.
—“Minneapolis shooter was 'tired of being trans' and had been 'brainwashed' into being female,” Daily Mail
Again, this line originates from user-made translations of diary pages, partly in Cyrillic. Tabloids (here, The Daily Mail) have reported on this, but mainstream outlets haven’t quoted it for various reasons—a person more charitable than I might say it was due to “journalistic integrity.” Whether it’s that or gatekeeping, the practical outcome is that inconvenient details often aren’t printed—but tabloids love inconvenient details.
Bias exists in mainstream media from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly on this topic (as I mentioned, I try to avoid it for that reason). While tabloids aren't trustworthy, mainstream sources aren't either. This contradicts their simplified narratives, and I trust internet users about as much as so-called “journalists,” whose job today is often just paid internet usage.
Further, other (local Minneapolis) reporting reveals potential groyper/channer/white supremacist tendencies and rhetoric that people like DJT Jr. don’t typically go out of their way to bring up:
Investigative reporter Ryan Raiche found videos on a YouTube page believed to belong to Westman. The page has since been taken down, but the videos seem to have been posted on Wednesday morning.
Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said investigators believe Westman did post the videos.
The disturbing videos showed Westman’s arsenal of guns, ammunition and what appears to be a handwritten four-page manifesto addressed to Westman’s family and friends[…]
The person on the video flashed a white supremacy sign, said racial slurs and showed a shirt with a patch of the old Minnesota flag [Ed: regarded as racist] and the phrase, “Do it before the anxiety kicks in.”[…]
Also written on the weaponry were references to the Holocaust and calls for Israel to “fall” and “burn.” [Ed: this shouldn't be seen as “pro-Palestinian”; context indicates antisemitism rather than anti-Imperialism]
A journal written in what appears to be Cyrillic characters also includes a hand-drawn map of the church. The person in the video also holds a smoke bomb, which police say was used in the attack.
—“Robin Westman posted a manifesto on YouTube prior to Annunciation Church shooting,” KSTP
As for why, I think The Right has inserted “the trans pattern” to have a rebuttal to The Left blaming these shootings on guns. The fact is, it’s not guns; that‘s highly inadequate logic. “Because trans” is a really flimsy, bigoted response to it, though.
The reason I think it’s necessary to push back on either is that any boogeyman, right (trans) or left (guns), sets up a wall between us and any systemic observation or analysis.
Both sides want a single villain. But it’s not trans people; the number of shootings that trans people perpetrate is minuscule compared to the total. It’s also not guns; guns might be deadlier, but mass attacks happen similarly in other countries. Guns are the tool; they explain body count, but not why the performance happens at all. If you pretend the motive is “trans” or “AR-15,” you get to ignore the stage the play is performed on.
One part of that is ugly and straightforward: our media glorifies killing and killers through coverage, memes, docudramas, and the attention economy’s incentive structure. The shooter becomes the main topic of discussion; the victims are the supporting cast. Suicide yields anonymity; “blaze of glory” buys posthumous fame. If you’re alienated enough, that exchange starts to look like a win.
Another part is the broad sense that the future has been canceled. If you think the best days are gone and what’s ahead is only scarcity and humiliation, destruction feels like agency. “Hurt people hurt people” isn’t therapy-speak here; it’s instructional (the joke chant version come to life). And our ruling class sells extremes (optimize harder, consume harder, revolt harder) while algorithms elevate the most performative versions of all three. A Malthusian fatalism working to thin the herd to maintain manufactured scarcity and wealth exclusively for the wealthiest on top, a gamified attention market below.
The uncomfortable truth is that there’s no neat offender profile and never will be. Given the right combination of isolation, grievance, and visibility, almost anyone can be led down this path. The scripts are public, too! We’ve ensured that the next candidate can read and learn from them!
So if the question is why these events keep happening, “because trans” and “because guns” both miss the point hard.
One prominent incentive is fame; the medium is spectacle; the fuel is despair. Until the celebrity economy around killers disappears and our media stops packaging their acts as culturally meaningful performances, the script pays.
Close the theater!